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Seattle SeahawksElijah Arroyo
#18 · TE · 6' 5" · 254 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Dec 7, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Miami
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 21.7 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutElijah Arroyo isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Arroyo is expected to see more opportunities in 2026 after catching 15 passes for 179 yards and one touchdown across 13 regular-season games as a rookie. AJ Barner remains atop Seattle's depth chart, but Arroyo's athleticism gives him a path to increased usage in passing situations and two-tight end sets. Injuries limited Arroyo's involvement last season, so better health could be all the 2025 second-rounder requires to take a notable step forward.
Verdict
vs 28.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 33% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)68supports it
Projection vs line33argues against it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
15.7 REC YDS(×0.91 context)
L5 15.4 · L10 21.7 · med 29.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.2 · ceil 39.8
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 28.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 29% | 2/7 |
Situational splits
Over 28.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%1/2Low
Away60%3/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%3/6Low
Last matchup — vs MIN
Nov 30, 2025
28thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
MIN allows 21.6 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 32 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 7 games, Elijah Arroyo has gone over 28.5 REC YDS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. MIN has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 28th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (21.6 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 17.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.