Seattle Seahawks

Elijah Arroyo Receptions

Stats updated: Dec 7, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Elijah Arroyo has gone over 1.5 REC in 4 of his last 7 decided games (57%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Miami
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 1.6 REC · our line

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OutElijah Arroyo isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Arroyo is expected to see more opportunities in 2026 after catching 15 passes for 179 yards and one touchdown across 13 regular-season games as a rookie. AJ Barner remains atop Seattle's depth chart, but Arroyo's athleticism gives him a path to increased usage in passing situations and two-tight end sets. Injuries limited Arroyo's involvement last season, so better health could be all the 2025 second-rounder requires to take a notable step forward.

Verdict

vs 1.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 38% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)68supports it

Projection vs line38argues against it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

1.2 REC(×0.91 context)

L5 1.4 · L10 1.6 · med 2.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.2 · ceil 2.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 107 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Last 207 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Season7 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	71%	5/7
1.5Current	57%	4/7
	14%	1/7
	14%	1/7
	0%	0/7

Last 7 games — REC per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%1/2Low

Away60%3/5Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%3/6Low

Last matchup — vs MIN

Nov 30, 2025

28thof 32 in REC allowed to tight ends

MIN allows 2.2 REC per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 32 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 7 games, Elijah Arroyo has gone over 1.5 REC 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. MIN has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 28th-most REC of 32 teams (2.2 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.