Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Emeka Egbuka Receptions

Stats updated: Jan 3, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Emeka Egbuka has gone over 4.5 REC in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Ohio State
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 4.2 REC · our line

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OutEmeka Egbuka isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

With Mike Evans and Chris Godwin missing a combined 17 regular-season games to injuries last season, Egbuka was forced into multiple roles as a rookie. Godwin split time between the slot and out wide on his 428 offensive snaps, but he figures to play mostly a slot role in three-wide sets under Robinson, who talked up third-round rookie Ted Hurst (6-foot-4, 206 pounds) as a prototypical X receiver Tuesday. After Egbuka got off to a hot start last season, he suffered a hamstring injury in Week 6 and dealt with the issue for multiple weeks despite not missing a contest. Full health and a dedicated position should help him return to form in his second campaign.

Verdict

vs 4.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 77% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line77supports it

Consistency48neutral

Projection

3.4 REC(×0.90 context)

L5 3.2 · L10 4.1 · med 4.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 3.0 · ceil 5.4

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Last 1010 games

30%over

3 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%

Last 2014 games

29%over

4 over · 10 under

Medium confidence95% CI 12%–55%

Season14 games

29%over

4 over · 10 under

Medium confidence95% CI 12%–55%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	14/14
	93%	13/14
	71%	10/14
4.5Current	29%	4/14
	21%	3/14
	7%	1/14
	0%	0/14

Last 14 games — REC per game vs. line 4.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 4.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%2/6Low

Away25%2/8Low

Days since last game

3+ days31%4/13Medium

With a teammate out

How this REC line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Bucky Irving out+0.8 REC when he sits

Without (6g)

4.7 REC

50% over 4.5

With (8g)

3.9 REC

13% over 4.5

Last matchup — @ MIA

Dec 28, 2025

23rdof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers

MIA allows 3.3 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 54 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Emeka Egbuka has gone over 4.5 REC 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 29% across the full season. MIA has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 23rd-most REC of 32 teams (3.3 per game). His game-to-game REC have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 29%.