Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Emeka Egbuka Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Oct 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Emeka Egbuka has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 2 of his last 5 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Ohio State
Experience: 3 seasons

Top reads — this player & matchup

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Ranked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.4 REC TD · our line

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QuestionableConfirm Emeka Egbuka's status before the game.

Injury:: Not Specified Foot Not Specified

On the heels of two games on the sideline due to a concussion and a foot injury, Egbuka kicked off this week as a non-participant Wednesday before logging back-to-back full sessions Thursday and Friday. Despite clearing the protocol for head injuries ahead of Week 8 action, he was listed as questionable with the foot issue ahead of Sunday's matchup, but Pelissero's report indicates Egbuka is trending toward active status. Egbuka's availability will be clarified approximately 90 minutes before an 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 5/100· model 61% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it

Projection vs line61supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup0argues against it

Projection

0.5 REC TD(×1.07 context)

L5 0.4 · L10 0.4 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 105 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 205 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Season5 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	40%	2/5
	0%	0/5
	0%	0/5
	0%	0/5

Last 5 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home67%2/3Low

Away0%0/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%2/4Low

Next matchup — @ CHI

Nov 9, 2026

6thof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

CHI allows 0.4 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 22 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 5 games, Emeka Egbuka has gone over 0.5 REC TD 2 of 5 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. CHI has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 6th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.4 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

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Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.