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Kansas City ChiefsEmmett Johnson
#10 · RB · 5' 11" · 200 lb · 5 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Nebraska
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 15.4 RUSH YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutEmmett Johnson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The rookie running back flashed his explosiveness on a 73-yard catch-and-run in the second quarter that produced Johnson's first career NFL touchdown. He came into Sunday with a 9-109-0 line on 11 targets through six games, and his six touches were firmly behind Kenneth Walker's 25, but Johnson's breakout performance can only encourage Andy Reid to find more ways to get the ball in his hands. Johnson will look to build on this effort in Week 9 against the Jets.
Verdict
vs 12.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 74% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line74supports it
Consistency38argues against it
Matchup50neutral
Projection
15.6 RUSH YDS(×1.06 context)
L5 15.4 · L10 15.4 · med 15.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 13.2 · ceil 18.4
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 105 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 205 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Season5 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Situational splits
Over 12.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away100%2/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days75%3/4Low
Next matchup — vs NYJ
Nov 8, 2026
19thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
NYJ allows 44.1 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 19 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 5 games, Emmett Johnson has gone over 12.5 RUSH YDS 4 of 5 decided times (80%) — versus 80% across the full season. NYJ has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 19th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (44.1 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 5.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
5 books @ 12.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
Caesars-108
-3.7% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-114
-6.1% EV
Model vs market (over)+24.3%
Our model puts the over at 74.3% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (12.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 80%.