Kansas City Chiefs

Emmett Johnson Receptions

Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Emmett Johnson has gone over 2 REC in 1 of his last 2 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Nebraska
Experience: Rookie

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 2.2 REC · PrizePicks line

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PrizePicks payout options — Receptions (REC)

Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.

How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins

Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).

Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.

Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.

OutEmmett Johnson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

The rookie running back flashed his explosiveness on a 73-yard catch-and-run in the second quarter that produced Johnson's first career NFL touchdown. He came into Sunday with a 9-109-0 line on 11 targets through six games, and his six touches were firmly behind Kenneth Walker's 25, but Johnson's breakout performance can only encourage Andy Reid to find more ways to get the ball in his hands. Johnson will look to build on this effort in Week 9 against the Jets.

Verdict

vs 2 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 56% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral

Projection vs line56neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup0argues against it

Projection

2.4 REC(×0.98 context)

L5 2.2 · L10 2.2 · med 2.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 1.6 · ceil 2.6

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under · 3 push

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 105 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under · 3 push

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 205 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under · 3 push

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Season5 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under · 3 push

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 5 games — REC per game vs. line 2.0. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 2 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home—0/0Low

Away50%1/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%1/2Low

Next matchup — vs NYJ

Nov 8, 2026

31stof 32 in REC allowed to running backs

NYJ allows 1.4 REC per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 19 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 5 games, Emmett Johnson has gone over 2 REC 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. NYJ has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 31st-most REC of 32 teams (1.4 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Market edgeauto

4 books @ 1.5 REC

No-vig fair (over): 60.2%
No-vig fair (under): 39.8%

Best Over

Hard Rock Bet-160

-2.2% EV

Best Under

DraftKings+140

-4.5% EV

Model vs market (over)-4.3%

Our model puts the over at 55.9% vs the market's no-vig 60.2%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.

Line shopping — Receptions (REC)

Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (1.5 REC). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.

BookLineover rateEdge

over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.