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Las Vegas RaidersFernando Mendoza
#15 · QB · 6' 5" · 225 lb · 1 games
Stats updated: Oct 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Indiana
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 48.0 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutFernando Mendoza isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
With the game out of hand, Raiders head coach Klint Kubiak elected to give Mendoza his first NFL snaps on the team's final drive of the game, and the No. 1 overall pick acquitted himself well in a low-pressure situation, with his longest completion going for 16 yards to Tre Tucker. Mendoza even led Las Vegas into the red zone, but he came up just short on a fourth-and-4 from New England's 14-yard line as he scrambled for the sticks. It may be only a matter of time until Mendoza replaces Kirk Cousins under center on a permanent basis, but a switch may not be imminent with the veteran quarterback having led the team to a 3-2 record. Mendoza has at least given his coach some early confidence that he'll be ready when the time comes for him to start.
Verdict
vs 47.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 100% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line95supports it
Consistency100supports it
Projection
51.4 PASS YDS(×1.07 context)
L5 48.0 · L10 48.0 · med 48.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 48.0 · ceil 48.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 51 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Last 101 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Last 201 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Season1 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 1/1 | ||
| 100% | 1/1 | ||
| 100% | 1/1 | ||
| 47.5Current | 100% | 1/1 | |
| 0% | 0/1 | ||
| 0% | 0/1 | ||
| 0% | 0/1 |
Situational splits
Over 47.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Away100%1/1Low
Next matchup — vs BUF
Oct 18, 2026
2ndof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
BUF allows 295.8 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 1 games, Fernando Mendoza has gone over 47.5 PASS YDS 1 of 1 decided times (100%) — versus 100% across the full season. BUF has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 2nd-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (295.8 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 100%.