Las Vegas Raiders

Fernando Mendoza Passing TDs

Stats updated: Oct 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Fernando Mendoza has gone over 0.5 PASS TD in 0 of his last 1 decided games (0%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Indiana
Experience: Rookie

Line

PrizePicksPassing TDs · season avg 0.0 PASS TD · our line

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OutFernando Mendoza isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

With the game out of hand, Raiders head coach Klint Kubiak elected to give Mendoza his first NFL snaps on the team's final drive of the game, and the No. 1 overall pick acquitted himself well in a low-pressure situation, with his longest completion going for 16 yards to Tre Tucker. Mendoza even led Las Vegas into the red zone, but he came up just short on a fourth-and-4 from New England's 14-yard line as he scrambled for the sticks. It may be only a matter of time until Mendoza replaces Kirk Cousins under center on a permanent basis, but a switch may not be imminent with the veteran quarterback having led the team to a 3-2 record. Mendoza has at least given his coach some early confidence that he'll be ready when the time comes for him to start.

Verdict

vs 0.5 PASS TDPassing TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 100% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line95supports it

Projection

0.0 PASS TD(×1.07 context)

L5 0.0 · L10 0.0 · med 0.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 51 game

0%over

0 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–79%

Last 101 game

0%over

0 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–79%

Last 201 game

0%over

0 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–79%

Season1 game

0%over

0 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–79%

Alternate lines — Passing TDs (PASS TD)

PASS TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate PASS TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1

Last 1 games — PASS TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 PASS TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Away0%0/1Low

Next matchup — vs BUF

Oct 18, 2026

4thof 32 in PASS TD allowed to quarterbacks

BUF allows 2.6 PASS TD per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 1 games, Fernando Mendoza has gone over 0.5 PASS TD 0 of 1 decided times (0%) — versus 0% across the full season. BUF has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 4th-most PASS TD of 32 teams (2.6 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS TD have been variable (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 0%.