Arizona Cardinals

Gardner Minshew II Completions

Stats updated: Dec 21, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Gardner Minshew II has gone over 2.5 CMP in 2 of his last 2 decided games (100%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Washington State
Experience: 9 seasons

Line

PrizePicksCompletions · season avg 3.0 CMP · our line

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OutGardner Minshew II isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Minshew will bump back to the backup role now that teammate Jacoby Brissett has come to terms with Arizona on a new contract that provides him a raise for the 2026 campaign. Expectations are that Minshew will kick off the regular season as the No. 2 option behind Brissett, though rookie third-rounder Carson Beck also will have the chance to compete for opportunities in training camp. Minshew is fully recovered from the season-ending knee injury he suffered while operating as the backup to Patrick Mahomes (ACL) in Kansas City in 2025.

Verdict

vs 2.5 CMPCompletions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 57% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line57neutral

Consistency100supports it

Matchup0argues against it

Projection

2.8 CMP(×0.92 context)

L5 3.0 · L10 3.0 · med 3.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 3.0 · ceil 3.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 52 games

100%over

2 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 34%–100%

Last 102 games

100%over

2 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 34%–100%

Last 202 games

100%over

2 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 34%–100%

Season2 games

100%over

2 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 34%–100%

Alternate lines — Completions (CMP)

CMP over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate CMP line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	2/2
	100%	2/2
2.5Current	100%	2/2
	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2

Last 2 games — CMP per game vs. line 2.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 2.5 CMP by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home100%1/1Low

Away100%1/1Low

Days since last game

3+ days100%1/1Low

Next matchup — vs CAR

Aug 7, 2026

29thof 32 in CMP allowed to quarterbacks

CAR allows 17.6 CMP per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 20 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 2 games, Gardner Minshew II has gone over 2.5 CMP 2 of 2 decided times (100%) — versus 100% across the full season. CAR has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 29th-most CMP of 32 teams (17.6 per game). His game-to-game CMP have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 100%.