Arizona Cardinals

Gardner Minshew II Passing TDs

Stats updated: Dec 21, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Gardner Minshew II has gone over 0.5 PASS TD in 0 of his last 2 decided games (0%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Washington State
Experience: 9 seasons

Line

PrizePicksPassing TDs · season avg 0.0 PASS TD · our line

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OutGardner Minshew II isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Minshew will bump back to the backup role now that teammate Jacoby Brissett has come to terms with Arizona on a new contract that provides him a raise for the 2026 campaign. Expectations are that Minshew will kick off the regular season as the No. 2 option behind Brissett, though rookie third-rounder Carson Beck also will have the chance to compete for opportunities in training camp. Minshew is fully recovered from the season-ending knee injury he suffered while operating as the backup to Patrick Mahomes (ACL) in Kansas City in 2025.

Verdict

vs 0.5 PASS TDPassing TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 100% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line95supports it

Projection

0.0 PASS TD

L5 0.0 · L10 0.0 · med 0.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 52 games

0%over

0 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–66%

Last 102 games

0%over

0 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–66%

Last 202 games

0%over

0 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–66%

Season2 games

0%over

0 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–66%

Alternate lines — Passing TDs (PASS TD)

PASS TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate PASS TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2

Last 2 games — PASS TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 PASS TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/1Low

Away0%0/1Low

Days since last game

3+ days0%0/1Low

Last matchup — @ TEN

Dec 21, 2025

6thof 32 in PASS TD allowed to quarterbacks

TEN allows 1.8 PASS TD per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 17 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 2 games, Gardner Minshew II has gone over 0.5 PASS TD 0 of 2 decided times (0%) — versus 0% across the full season. TEN has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 6th-most PASS TD of 32 teams (1.8 per game). His game-to-game PASS TD have been variable (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 0%.