Seattle Seahawks

George Holani Targets

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

George Holani has gone over 1.5 TGT in 2 of his last 5 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Boise State
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 1.6 TGT · our line

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OutGeorge Holani isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Holani got the third-most offensive snaps (18) among Seattle's running backs, trailing Jadarian Price (24) and Emanuel Wilson (29). Price hurt his shoulder and had to exit the game in the fourth quarter, at which point Wilson took over as the clear lead RB and finished with a strong 21-92-0 rushing line. With that said, if Price is sidelined Week 5 versus Washington, Wilson would likely lead Seattle's backfield, though Holani would stand to see increased opportunities as well.

Verdict

vs 1.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 56% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it

Projection vs line56neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

1.6 TGT(×1.02 context)

L5 1.6 · L10 1.6 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.8 · ceil 2.4

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 105 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 205 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Season5 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	80%	4/5
1.5Current	40%	2/5
	20%	1/5
	20%	1/5
	0%	0/5

Last 5 games — TGT per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%2/4Low

Away0%0/1Low

Days since last game

3+ days25%1/4Low

Next matchup — @ WSH

Sep 27, 2026

13thof 32 in TGT allowed to running backs

WSH allows 3.0 TGT per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 5 games, George Holani has gone over 1.5 TGT 2 of 5 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. WSH has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 13th-most TGT of 32 teams (3.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.