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Miami DolphinsGreg Dulcich
#85 · TE · 6' 4" · 245 lb · 8 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 7 of these 8 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- UCLA
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 35.3 REC YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutGreg Dulcich isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Dulcich saw more of the Miami receiving offense in Week 2. The tight end played 36 of 59 offensive snaps, primarily as a blocker, but saw more attention downfield than in Week 1. Dulcich also contributed on special teams, playing four snaps in the loss.
Verdict
vs 22.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 63% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)89supports it
Projection vs line63supports it
Consistency31argues against it
Projection
29.5 REC YDS(×0.87 context)
L5 38.6 · L10 35.3 · med 36.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 19.6 · ceil 47.8
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 108 games
63%over
5 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–86%Last 208 games
63%over
5 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–86%Season8 games
63%over
5 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–86%Situational splits
Over 22.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home60%3/5Low
Away67%2/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days57%4/7Low
Next matchup — vs KC
Sep 27, 2026
22ndof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
KC allows 18.5 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 8 games, Greg Dulcich has gone over 22.5 REC YDS 5 of 8 decided times (63%) — versus 63% across the full season. KC has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 22nd-most REC YDS of 32 teams (18.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 14.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 22.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.2%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 49.8%
Best Over
DraftKings-110
-4.2% EV
Best Under
Hard Rock Bet-110
-4.9% EV
Model vs market (over)+13.0%
Our model puts the over at 63.2% vs the market's no-vig 50.2%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (22.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 63%.