Miami Dolphins

Greg Dulcich Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Greg Dulcich has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 1 of his last 7 decided games (14%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: UCLA
Experience: 6 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.1 REC TD · our line

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OutGreg Dulcich isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Dolphins head coach Jeff Hafley suggested that Dulich could return for next week's joint practices with the Commanders. It thus sounds like the tight end will miss the rest of this week, but he's still well on his way to a role as Miami's top pass catcher at his position. Dulcich does have a worrisome history of hamstring injuries, so it'll be worth a closer look if the current problem turns out to be related. For now, the Dolphins merely consider him day-to-day.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 84% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line84supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.2 REC TD(×0.97 context)

L5 0.2 · L10 0.1 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 107 games

14%over

1 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 3%–51%

Last 207 games

14%over

1 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 3%–51%

Season7 games

14%over

1 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 3%–51%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	14%	1/7
	0%	0/7
	0%	0/7
	0%	0/7

Last 7 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home20%1/5Low

Away0%0/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days17%1/6Low

Last matchup — @ NE

Jan 4, 2026

19thof 32 in REC TD allowed to tight ends

NE allows 0.2 REC TD per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 39 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 7 games, Greg Dulcich has gone over 0.5 REC TD 1 of 7 decided times (14%) — versus 14% across the full season. NE has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 19th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.2 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 14%.