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Cleveland BrownsHarold Fannin Jr.
#44 · TE · 6' 4" · 241 lb · 16 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 15 of these 16 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Bowling Green
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 47.2 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutHarold Fannin Jr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The second-year tight end bounced back from a quiet Week 1 to post a productive stat line Sunday akin to many he'd generated during an impressive 2025 rookie campaign. Fannin tied for second on the day in receptions and targets for Cleveland while also checking in as the runner-up in receiving yards, serving as a frequent security blanket for Deshaun Watson. Fannin should continue seeing plenty of opportunity as his chemistry with Watson grows, and he'll next take aim at the Panthers' defense in Week 3 home matchup.
Verdict
vs 43.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 56% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line56neutral
Consistency16argues against it
Projection
51.0 REC YDS(×1.01 context)
L5 58.6 · L10 50.1 · med 43.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 26.0 · ceil 62.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2016 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Season16 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | 9/16 | ||
| 56% | 9/16 | ||
| 56% | 9/16 | ||
| 43.5Current | 50% | 8/16 | |
| 44% | 7/16 | ||
| 44% | 7/16 | ||
| 44% | 7/16 |
Situational splits
Over 43.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home25%2/8Low
Away75%6/8Low
Days since last game
3+ days47%7/15Low
Next matchup — vs CAR
Sep 27, 2026
27thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
CAR allows 14.0 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Harold Fannin Jr. has gone over 43.5 REC YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. CAR has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 27th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (14.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 23.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.