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Cleveland BrownsHarold Fannin Jr. Receptions
Stats updated: Dec 28, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
Harold Fannin Jr. has gone over 4.5 REC in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Bowling Green
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Receptions · season avg 4.8 REC · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutHarold Fannin Jr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Per Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com, Fannin said he missed the Browns' offseason workout program due to a procedure to address a groin injury he sustained in Week 17 of the 2025 campaign. However, the tight end noted Wednesday that he was cleared about two weeks ago and is thus ready to reclaim his role as the team's top option at his position, a context that should result in weekly fantasy utility for the 2025 third-rounder, regardless of who between Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders wins the team's ongoing QB competition.
Verdict
vs 4.5 RECReceptionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 40% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it
Projection vs line40neutral
Consistency34argues against it
Projection
5.5 REC(×1.10 context)
L5 5.2 · L10 4.9 · med 4.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.4 · ceil 7.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2013 games
46%over
6 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–71%Season13 games
46%over
6 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–71%Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)
REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 13/13 | ||
| 85% | 11/13 | ||
| 77% | 10/13 | ||
| 4.5Current | 46% | 6/13 | |
| 38% | 5/13 | ||
| 31% | 4/13 | ||
| 8% | 1/13 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%2/6Low
Away57%4/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days42%5/12Low
With a teammate out
How this REC line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Shedeur Sanders out+0.3 REC when he sits
Without (7g)
5.0 REC
57% over 4.5
With (6g)
4.7 REC
33% over 4.5
Dillon Gabriel out+1.9 REC when he sits
Without (5g)
6.0 REC
60% over 4.5
With (8g)
4.1 REC
38% over 4.5
Last matchup — vs BUF
Dec 21, 2025
32ndof 32 in REC allowed to tight ends
BUF allows 1.6 REC per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 30 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Harold Fannin Jr. has gone over 4.5 REC 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 46% across the full season. BUF has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 32nd-most REC of 32 teams (1.6 per game). His game-to-game REC have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 46%.
More Harold Fannin Jr. research
Harold Fannin Jr. — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Fannin Jr. Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Fannin Jr. Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Fannin Jr. Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.