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Detroit LionsIsaac TeSlaa
#18 · WR · 6' 4" · 214 lb · 5 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Arkansas
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 31.2 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutIsaac TeSlaa isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
TeSlaa flashed touchdown upside as a rookie, finishing with 16 catches for 239 yards and six scores, including eight catches for 119 yards and two touchdowns over Detroit's final three regular-season games. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams remain Jared Goff's top two targets, with RB Jahmyr Gibbs and TE Sam LaPorta also highly involved, but Kalif Raymond's departure gives TeSlaa a clear path to the No. 3 WR role. If TeSlaa's added strength and cleaner route breaks help him separate more consistently, he could take a step forward in Year 2 despite Detroit's crowded offense. Head coach Dan Campbell also praised TeSlaa's maturity during mandatory minicamp.
Verdict
vs 34.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 53% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line53neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
34.7 REC YDS
L5 31.2 · L10 31.2 · med 35.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 16.0 · ceil 49.6
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 105 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 205 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Season5 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 34.5Current | 60% | 3/5 | |
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 40% | 2/5 |
Situational splits
Over 34.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days75%3/4Low
Last matchup — @ MIN
Dec 25, 2025
21stof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
MIN allows 40.1 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 49 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 5 games, Isaac TeSlaa has gone over 34.5 REC YDS 3 of 5 decided times (60%) — versus 60% across the full season. MIN has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 21st-most REC YDS of 32 teams (40.1 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 19.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 60%.