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New York JetsIsaiah Davis
#32 · RB · 6' 1" · 220 lb · 10 games
Stats updated: Dec 28, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- South Dakota State
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 18.5 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutIsaiah Davis isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Allen has generated more fantasy interest since both he and Davis were taken by the Jets on Day 3 of the 2024 NFL Draft. Neither has decisively pulled ahead of the other, though Davis has done a better job with his limited snaps, averaging 5.6 yards on 73 carries and 8.7 yards on 30 receptions. Allen is pushing 250 pounds and may be a pure power specialist, while Davis lacks a standout trait but probably offers a better blend of skills, including some experience as a third-down back. The decision on who plays more could be just as much about starter Breece Hall and when the coaches want to take him off the field.
Verdict
vs 9.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 61% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line61supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
19.5 RUSH YDS(×1.02 context)
L5 18.8 · L10 18.5 · med 9.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 6.6 · ceil 20.4
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Season10 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | 8/10 | ||
| 70% | 7/10 | ||
| 60% | 6/10 | ||
| 9.5Current | 50% | 5/10 | |
| 30% | 3/10 | ||
| 20% | 2/10 | ||
| 20% | 2/10 |
Situational splits
Over 9.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home60%3/5Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days56%5/9Low
With a teammate out
How this RUSH YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Geno Smith out+28.3 RUSH YDS when he sits
Without (4g)
35.5 RUSH YDS
75% over 9.5
With (6g)
7.2 RUSH YDS
33% over 9.5
Adonai Mitchell out-16.4 RUSH YDS when he sits
Without (3g)
7.0 RUSH YDS
33% over 9.5
With (7g)
23.4 RUSH YDS
57% over 9.5
Last matchup — vs NE
Dec 28, 2025
29thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
NE allows 41.7 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 36 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Isaiah Davis has gone over 9.5 RUSH YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. NE has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 29th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (41.7 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 21.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.