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New York JetsIsaiah Davis
#32 · RB · 6' 1" · 220 lb · 14 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 10 of these 14 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- South Dakota State
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 16.4 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutIsaiah Davis isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
With Breece Hall (quad) missing another game, Davis handled RB2 duties behind workhorse Braelon Allen. Davis has totaled 15 carries for 44 empty yards this season, adding five catches for 68 yards. Hall is expected to return for Week 9 against the Chiefs, which would relegate Davis to the RB3 role.
Verdict
vs 9.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 50% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral
Projection vs line50neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
11.9 RUSH YDS(×0.82 context)
L5 11.0 · L10 20.3 · med 10.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 6.2 · ceil 15.4
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2014 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Season14 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 79% | 11/14 | ||
| 71% | 10/14 | ||
| 57% | 8/14 | ||
| 9.5Current | 50% | 7/14 | |
| 36% | 5/14 | ||
| 29% | 4/14 | ||
| 29% | 4/14 |
Situational splits
Over 9.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%4/8Low
Away50%3/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days54%7/13Low
With a teammate out
How this RUSH YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Geno Smith out+7.5 RUSH YDS when he sits
Without (10g)
18.5 RUSH YDS
50% over 9.5
With (4g)
11.0 RUSH YDS
50% over 9.5
Braelon Allen out+7.5 RUSH YDS when he sits
Without (10g)
18.5 RUSH YDS
50% over 9.5
With (4g)
11.0 RUSH YDS
50% over 9.5
Next matchup — @ KC
Nov 8, 2026
27thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
KC allows 36.5 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 13 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Isaiah Davis has gone over 9.5 RUSH YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 50% across the full season. KC has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 27th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (36.5 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 18.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.