New York Jets

Isaiah Davis Targets

Stats updated: Dec 28, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Isaiah Davis has gone over 1.5 TGT in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: South Dakota State
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 2.3 TGT · our line

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OutIsaiah Davis isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Allen has generated more fantasy interest since both he and Davis were taken by the Jets on Day 3 of the 2024 NFL Draft. Neither has decisively pulled ahead of the other, though Davis has done a better job with his limited snaps, averaging 5.6 yards on 73 carries and 8.7 yards on 30 receptions. Allen is pushing 250 pounds and may be a pure power specialist, while Davis lacks a standout trait but probably offers a better blend of skills, including some experience as a third-down back. The decision on who plays more could be just as much about starter Breece Hall and when the coaches want to take him off the field.

Verdict

vs 1.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 45% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral

Projection vs line45neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

2.1 TGT(×1.02 context)

L5 1.4 · L10 2.3 · med 1.5

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 1.0 · ceil 4.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Season10 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	90%	9/10
1.5Current	50%	5/10
	40%	4/10
	40%	4/10
	10%	1/10

Last 10 games — TGT per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home40%2/5Low

Away60%3/5Low

Days since last game

3+ days44%4/9Low

With a teammate out

How this TGT line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Geno Smith out

Without (4g)

2.3 TGT

50% over 1.5

With (6g)

2.3 TGT

50% over 1.5

Adonai Mitchell out-1.4 TGT when he sits

Without (3g)

1.3 TGT

33% over 1.5

With (7g)

2.7 TGT

57% over 1.5

Last matchup — vs NE

Dec 28, 2025

6thof 32 in TGT allowed to running backs

NE allows 3.0 TGT per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 36 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Isaiah Davis has gone over 1.5 TGT 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. NE has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 6th-most TGT of 32 teams (3.0 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.