Detroit Lions

Isiah Pacheco Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Dec 26, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Isiah Pacheco has gone over 5.5 FS in 7 of his last 10 decided games (70%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Rutgers
Experience: 6 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 6.8 FS · our line

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OutIsiah Pacheco isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Running backs coach Tashard Choice has challenged Pacheco during spring activities to "love every possession," emphasizing the importance of maximizing a complementary workload behind Gibbs rather than focusing on snap counts. After injuries slowed Pacheco over the past two seasons in Kansas City, the 27-year-old is embracing his new opportunities and is expected to play a key role in Detroit's backfield. While Gibbs remains the Lions' clear workhorse, Pacheco's physical running style should earn him steady touches and give him significant fantasy upside if he's forced into a larger workload. Sione Vaki is also in the mix for reps behind Gibbs.

Verdict

vs 5.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 59% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)77supports it

Projection vs line59neutral

Consistency6argues against it

Projection

6.5 FS

L5 5.5 · L10 7.3 · med 5.9

Consistency

Variable

floor 3.3 · ceil 11.6

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

70%over

7 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%

Last 2012 games

58%over

7 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 32%–81%

Season12 games

58%over

7 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 32%–81%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	92%	11/12
	75%	9/12
	67%	8/12
5.5Current	58%	7/12
	33%	4/12
	33%	4/12
	33%	4/12

Last 12 games — FS per game vs. line 5.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 5.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%4/8Low

Away75%3/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days64%7/11Low

With a teammate out

How this FS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Jameson Williams out-1.5 FS when he sits

Without (7g)

6.2 FS

57% over 5.5

With (5g)

7.7 FS

60% over 5.5

Sam LaPorta out-1.0 FS when he sits

Without (9g)

6.6 FS

56% over 5.5

With (3g)

7.6 FS

67% over 5.5

Last matchup — vs DEN

Dec 26, 2025

24thof 32 in FS allowed to running backs

DEN allows 10.1 FS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 28 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Isiah Pacheco has gone over 5.5 FS 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 58% across the full season. DEN has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 24th-most FS of 32 teams (10.1 per game). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 3.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 58%.