Detroit Lions

Isiah Pacheco Rushing TDs

Stats updated: Dec 26, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Isiah Pacheco has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD in 1 of his last 10 decided games (10%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Rutgers
Experience: 6 seasons

Line

PrizePicksRushing TDs · season avg 0.1 RUSH TD · our line

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OutIsiah Pacheco isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Running backs coach Tashard Choice has challenged Pacheco during spring activities to "love every possession," emphasizing the importance of maximizing a complementary workload behind Gibbs rather than focusing on snap counts. After injuries slowed Pacheco over the past two seasons in Kansas City, the 27-year-old is embracing his new opportunities and is expected to play a key role in Detroit's backfield. While Gibbs remains the Lions' clear workhorse, Pacheco's physical running style should earn him steady touches and give him significant fantasy upside if he's forced into a larger workload. Sione Vaki is also in the mix for reps behind Gibbs.

Verdict

vs 0.5 RUSH TDRushing TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 93% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line93supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.1 RUSH TD

L5 0.0 · L10 0.1 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Last 1010 games

10%over

1 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–40%

Last 2012 games

8%over

1 over · 11 under

Medium confidence95% CI 1%–35%

Season12 games

8%over

1 over · 11 under

Medium confidence95% CI 1%–35%

Alternate lines — Rushing TDs (RUSH TD)

RUSH TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate RUSH TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	8%	1/12
	0%	0/12
	0%	0/12
	0%	0/12

Last 12 games — RUSH TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 RUSH TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home13%1/8Medium

Away0%0/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days9%1/11Medium

With a teammate out

How this RUSH TD line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Jameson Williams out+0.1 RUSH TD when he sits

Without (7g)

0.1 RUSH TD

14% over 0.5

With (5g)

0.0 RUSH TD

0% over 0.5

Sam LaPorta out+0.1 RUSH TD when he sits

Without (9g)

0.1 RUSH TD

11% over 0.5

With (3g)

0.0 RUSH TD

0% over 0.5

Last matchup — vs DEN

Dec 26, 2025

26thof 32 in RUSH TD allowed to running backs

DEN allows 0.3 RUSH TD per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 28 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Isiah Pacheco has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD 1 of 10 decided times (10%) — versus 8% across the full season. DEN has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 26th-most RUSH TD of 32 teams (0.3 per game). His game-to-game RUSH TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 8%.