Detroit Lions

Isiah Pacheco Receiving Yards

Stats updated: Dec 26, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Isiah Pacheco has gone over 1.5 REC YDS in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Rutgers
Experience: 6 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving Yards · season avg 7.0 REC YDS · our line

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OutIsiah Pacheco isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Not Specified Back Not Specified
Est. return:: Dec 6, 2026

Pacheco was already on injured reserve, but he's looking at a lengthy recovery. According to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network, the running back is expected to be sidelined 12 weeks, giving him a "chance" to return sometime in December. With Pacheco sidelined Week 1 against the Saints, Jahmyr Gibbs handled 29 of the team's 31 backfield carries, turning them into 156 yards and two touchdowns. Gibbs also caught all five of his targets for 30 yards and played 57 of 77 offensive snaps. Sione Vaki played 22 snaps on offense but touched the ball just three times for 18 yards. Gibbs cemented himself as the premier player in fantasy football.

Verdict

vs 1.5 REC YDSReceiving Yards

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 38% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)57neutral

Projection vs line38argues against it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

8.5 REC YDS

L5 8.2 · L10 7.4 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 11.8

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Last 2012 games

50%over

6 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%

Season12 games

50%over

6 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%

Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)

REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC YDS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	50%	6/12
1.5Current	50%	6/12
	50%	6/12
	33%	4/12
	33%	4/12

Last 12 games — REC YDS per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home25%2/8Low

Away100%4/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days45%5/11Low

Next matchup — @ BUF

Sep 18, 2026

23rdof 32 in REC YDS allowed to running backs

BUF allows 8.5 REC YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Isiah Pacheco has gone over 1.5 REC YDS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 50% across the full season. BUF has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 23rd-most REC YDS of 32 teams (8.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 12.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.