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Minnesota VikingsJ.J. McCarthy
#9 · QB · 6' 3" · 219 lb · 9 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Michigan
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 169.3 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJ.J. McCarthy isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
McCarthy and Murray continue to engage in what seems like one of the league's few true quarterback competitions. Head coach Kevin O'Connell has stated that he has a timeline in place to announce a starter, but what that schedule is hasn't been revealed publicly. A 2024 first-round pick, McCarthy missed his entire rookie season due to injury and then logged an up-and-down Year 2, throwing for 1,632 yards with an 11:12 TD:INT across 10 regular-season starts in 2025.
Verdict
vs 158.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 50% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it
Projection vs line50neutral
Consistency52neutral
Projection
168.3 PASS YDS(×0.95 context)
L5 166.4 · L10 169.3 · med 158.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 143.0 · ceil 208.4
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 109 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Last 209 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Season9 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 158.5Current | 44% | 4/9 | |
| 44% | 4/9 | ||
| 44% | 4/9 | ||
| 44% | 4/9 |
Situational splits
Over 158.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home60%3/5Low
Away25%1/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%4/8Low
Last matchup — vs GB
Jan 4, 2026
19thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
GB allows 212.2 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 18 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 9 games, J.J. McCarthy has gone over 158.5 PASS YDS 4 of 9 decided times (44%) — versus 44% across the full season. GB has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 19th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (212.2 per game). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 48.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.