Minnesota Vikings

J.J. McCarthy Rushing Yards

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

J.J. McCarthy has gone over 15.5 RUSH YDS in 4 of his last 9 decided games (44%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Michigan
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksRushing Yards · season avg 17.9 RUSH YDS · our line

Save this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it

OutJ.J. McCarthy isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

McCarthy and Murray continue to engage in what seems like one of the league's few true quarterback competitions. Head coach Kevin O'Connell has stated that he has a timeline in place to announce a starter, but what that schedule is hasn't been revealed publicly. A 2024 first-round pick, McCarthy missed his entire rookie season due to injury and then logged an up-and-down Year 2, throwing for 1,632 yards with an 11:12 TD:INT across 10 regular-season starts in 2025.

Verdict

vs 15.5 RUSH YDSRushing Yards

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 55% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)70supports it

Projection vs line55neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

14.5 RUSH YDS(×0.95 context)

L5 10.2 · L10 17.9 · med 15.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 8.8 · ceil 25.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 109 games

44%over

4 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%

Last 209 games

44%over

4 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%

Season9 games

44%over

4 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%

Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)

RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate RUSH YDS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	56%	5/9
	56%	5/9
	56%	5/9
15.5Current	44%	4/9
	44%	4/9
	44%	4/9
	44%	4/9

Last 9 games — RUSH YDS per game vs. line 15.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 15.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home60%3/5Low

Away25%1/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days38%3/8Low

Last matchup — vs GB

Jan 4, 2026

25thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to quarterbacks

GB allows 14.8 RUSH YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 18 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 9 games, J.J. McCarthy has gone over 15.5 RUSH YDS 4 of 9 decided times (44%) — versus 44% across the full season. GB has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 25th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (14.8 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 13.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.