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Cincinnati BengalsJa'Marr Chase
#1 · WR · 6' 0" · 205 lb · 14 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- LSU
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 95.4 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJa'Marr Chase isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Chase will remain in the mix at the top of the first round of 2026 fantasy drafts, as despite instability at quarterback last year, he led the NFL with 185 targets and totaled a 125-1,412-8 line across 16 regular-season appearances. With Joe Burrow now healthy and veteran backup Joe Flacco back in the fold, Cincinnati's passing game appears better positioned entering 2026. Andrei Iosivas remains the favorite for the No. 3 receiver role behind Chase and Higgins, while running back Chase Brown and tight end Mike Gesicki will also factor into the passing game.
Verdict
vs 102.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 63% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line63supports it
Consistency27argues against it
Projection
82.5 REC YDS(×0.90 context)
L5 88.2 · L10 94.4 · med 102.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 53.6 · ceil 119.4
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2014 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Season14 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 102.5Current | 50% | 7/14 | |
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 |
Situational splits
Over 102.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home63%5/8Low
Away33%2/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days46%6/13Low
With a teammate out
How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Joe Burrow out-13.7 REC YDS when he sits
Without (7g)
88.6 REC YDS
43% over 102.5
With (7g)
102.3 REC YDS
57% over 102.5
Last matchup — vs CLE
Jan 4, 2026
28thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
CLE allows 37.7 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 49 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Ja'Marr Chase has gone over 102.5 REC YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. CLE has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 28th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (37.7 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 42.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.