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Cincinnati BengalsJa'Marr Chase Targets
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Ja'Marr Chase has gone over 10.5 TGT in 2 of his last 5 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- LSU
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Targets · season avg 10.8 TGT · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJa'Marr Chase isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Chase finally struck for his first 100-yard effort of the campaign in Sunday's wild win, finishing with team-high reception and target totals, as well as runner-up status in receiving yards. Chase was also on the receiving end of one of Joe Burrow's five touchdown passes, corralling the first one of the day from 30 yards out early in the second quarter. Chase has now scored in three straight games, and after season-best totals across all three components of his receiving line Sunday, the All-Pro receiver will head into a Week 9 matchup against the Falcons in Madrid with no shortage of momentum.
Verdict
vs 10.5 TGTTargetsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 30% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line30argues against it
Consistency53neutral
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
12.9 TGT(×1.16 context)
L5 10.8 · L10 10.8 · med 10.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 8.6 · ceil 12.8
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 105 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 205 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Season5 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)
TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | 4/5 | ||
| 80% | 4/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 10.5Current | 40% | 2/5 | |
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 20% | 1/5 | ||
| 20% | 1/5 |
Situational splits
Over 10.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%1/1Low
Away25%1/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%2/4Low
Next matchup — @ ATL
Nov 8, 2026
5thof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers
ATL allows 6.4 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 23 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 5 games, Ja'Marr Chase has gone over 10.5 TGT 2 of 5 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. ATL has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 5th-most TGT of 32 teams (6.4 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 3.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.
More Ja'Marr Chase research
Ja'Marr Chase — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Chase Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Chase Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Chase Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.