Loading…
Atlanta FalconsJahan Dotson
#2 · WR · 5' 11" · 184 lb · 10 games
Stats updated: Jan 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Penn State
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 25.8 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJahan Dotson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Dotson has featured with the starters consistently, working alongside Drake London while Olamide Zaccheaus and Zachariah Branch rotate in. In the process, McFadden notes that Dotson had a nice gain on a crossing route early in the full-team period of Thursday's practice. The 16th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft has recorded 1,519 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns through four NFL regular seasons split between Washington and Philadelphia, with seven of those scores coming in Dotson's rookie campaign.
Verdict
vs 20.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 39% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line39argues against it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
27.2 REC YDS(×1.10 context)
L5 22.2 · L10 25.8 · med 20.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 11.0 · ceil 40.6
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Season10 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 5/10 | ||
| 50% | 5/10 | ||
| 50% | 5/10 | ||
| 20.5Current | 50% | 5/10 | |
| 50% | 5/10 | ||
| 50% | 5/10 | ||
| 50% | 5/10 |
Situational splits
Over 20.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home71%5/7Low
Away0%0/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days44%4/9Low
With a teammate out
How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Bijan Robinson out-4.6 REC YDS when he sits
Without (7g)
24.4 REC YDS
43% over 20.5
With (3g)
29.0 REC YDS
67% over 20.5
Last matchup — vs WSH
Jan 4, 2026
4thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
WSH allows 49.8 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 53 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jahan Dotson has gone over 20.5 REC YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. WSH has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 4th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (49.8 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 17.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.