Atlanta Falcons

Jahan Dotson Receptions

Stats updated: Jan 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jahan Dotson has gone over 1.5 REC in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Penn State
Experience: 6 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 1.7 REC · our line

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OutJahan Dotson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Dotson has featured with the starters consistently, working alongside Drake London while Olamide Zaccheaus and Zachariah Branch rotate in. In the process, McFadden notes that Dotson had a nice gain on a crossing route early in the full-team period of Thursday's practice. The 16th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft has recorded 1,519 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns through four NFL regular seasons split between Washington and Philadelphia, with seven of those scores coming in Dotson's rookie campaign.

Verdict

vs 1.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 44% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)77supports it

Projection vs line44neutral

Consistency12argues against it

Projection

2.2 REC(×1.10 context)

L5 2.0 · L10 1.7 · med 1.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 1.0 · ceil 3.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Last 2010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Season10 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	10/10
1.5Current	40%	4/10
	30%	3/10
	0%	0/10
	0%	0/10

Last 10 games — REC per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home43%3/7Low

Away33%1/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days33%3/9Low

With a teammate out

How this REC line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Bijan Robinson out

Without (7g)

1.7 REC

43% over 1.5

With (3g)

1.7 REC

33% over 1.5

Last matchup — vs WSH

Jan 4, 2026

3rdof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers

WSH allows 3.8 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 53 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Jahan Dotson has gone over 1.5 REC 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. WSH has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 3rd-most REC of 32 teams (3.8 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.