Detroit Lions

Jahmyr Gibbs Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Sep 17, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jahmyr Gibbs has gone over 20.5 FS in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Alabama
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 23.2 FS · our line

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OutJahmyr Gibbs isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Gibbs managed a 16-yard run among his 16 carries, yet he generally found running room at a premium over the course of the high-scoring loss. Game script also limited the star running back's opportunities on the ground somewhat, but Gibbs did make up for it to an extent with his work as a receiver. The fourth-year pro tied for second in receptions and also was the runner-up in receiving yards for the Lions on the night, and he added his first receiving touchdown of the season when he brought in an 11-yard laser from Jared Goff with just over five minutes remaining in the first half. Gibbs should have a chance at reverting to a larger workload on the ground in a Week 3 home matchup against the Jets on Sunday, Sept. 27.

Verdict

vs 20.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 36% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it

Projection vs line36argues against it

Consistency11argues against it

Projection

27.7 FS(×1.19 context)

L5 21.3 · L10 24.0 · med 21.6

Consistency

Variable

floor 13.0 · ceil 35.5

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2018 games

44%over

8 over · 10 under

Medium confidence95% CI 25%–66%

Season18 games

44%over

8 over · 10 under

Medium confidence95% CI 25%–66%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	67%	12/18
	61%	11/18
	56%	10/18
20.5Current	44%	8/18
	44%	8/18
	44%	8/18
	33%	6/18

Last 18 games — FS per game vs. line 20.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 20.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home63%5/8Low

Away30%3/10Low

Days since last game

3+ days47%8/17Medium

Next matchup — vs NYJ

Sep 27, 2026

32ndof 32 in FS allowed to running backs

NYJ allows 4.8 FS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Jahmyr Gibbs has gone over 20.5 FS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 44% across the full season. NYJ has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 32nd-most FS of 32 teams (4.8 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 12.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.