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Denver BroncosJaleel McLaughlin
#38 · RB · 5' 7" · 187 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Jan 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Youngstown State
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 26.9 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJaleel McLaughlin isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
McLaughlin re-signed with Denver this offseason, but with all of J.K. Dobbins, RJ Harvey and rookie Jonah Coleman seemingly above him on the running back depth chart, the 25-year-old looks set to battle for depth duties with Badie, McLaughlin still offers change-of-pace abilities and rushing upside (career 4.8 YPC), but Badie's pass-protection skills and special-teams value could make for a tough camp competition. Even if McLaughlin wins the No. 4 spot, he lacks a clear path to touches on offense.
Verdict
vs 23.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 50% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line50neutral
Consistency36argues against it
Projection
24.3 RUSH YDS(×0.95 context)
L5 30.0 · L10 26.9 · med 23.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 19.8 · ceil 38.8
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | 6/8 | ||
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 23.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 38% | 3/8 | ||
| 38% | 3/8 | ||
| 38% | 3/8 |
Situational splits
Over 23.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home40%2/5Low
Away67%2/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days57%4/7Low
Last matchup — vs NE
Jan 25, 2026
29thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
NE allows 41.7 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 36 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 8 games, Jaleel McLaughlin has gone over 23.5 RUSH YDS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. NE has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 29th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (41.7 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 10.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.