Denver Broncos

Jaleel McLaughlin Targets

Stats updated: Jan 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jaleel McLaughlin has gone over 0.5 TGT in 6 of his last 8 decided games (75%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Youngstown State
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 1.0 TGT · our line

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OutJaleel McLaughlin isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

McLaughlin takes the spot on the 53-man roster vacated when Dylan Sampson (knee) was placed on injured reserve. McLaughlin has appeared in 41 career regular-season games over three seasons with the Broncos, carrying the ball 226 times for 1,093 yards for a 4.8 YPC while scoring three touchdowns. He's also been competent as a pass catcher, securing 59 of 69 targets for 263 yards and four more TDs. McLaughlin could play an immediate role in passing situations behind early-down back Quinshon Judkins.

Verdict

vs 0.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 69% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line69supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

1.1 TGT(×0.95 context)

L5 1.0 · L10 1.0 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.4 · ceil 1.6

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 108 games

75%over

6 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 41%–93%

Last 208 games

75%over

6 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 41%–93%

Season8 games

75%over

6 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 41%–93%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	75%	6/8
	25%	2/8
	0%	0/8
	0%	0/8

Last 8 games — TGT per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home80%4/5Low

Away67%2/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days71%5/7Low

Next matchup — vs LAR

Sep 28, 2026

6thof 32 in TGT allowed to running backs

LAR allows 4.5 TGT per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 8 games, Jaleel McLaughlin has gone over 0.5 TGT 6 of 8 decided times (75%) — versus 75% across the full season. LAR has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 6th-most TGT of 32 teams (4.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 75%.