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Philadelphia EaglesJalen Hurts Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Jalen Hurts has gone over 18.5 FS in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oklahoma
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 18.7 FS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJalen Hurts isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Both picks led to points for the Titans, including a fourth-quarter field goal that put the home side up 20-17 with less than two minutes left. Hurts atoned for his mistakes, however, leading a nine-play, 65-yard drive that was capped by a three-yard TD strike to Darius Cooper that won the game. Hurts has already thrown five touchdowns in two games after tossing a career-high 25 in 16 regular-season contests in 2025, and he'll look to keep that momentum going in a Week 3 road trip to Chicago.
Verdict
vs 18.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 55% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)58neutral
Projection vs line55neutral
Consistency38argues against it
Projection
18.4 FS(×1.03 context)
L5 16.7 · L10 16.2 · med 15.9
Consistency
Variable
floor 12.1 · ceil 24.5
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2018 games
56%over
10 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–75%Season18 games
56%over
10 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–75%Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)
FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 12/18 | ||
| 67% | 12/18 | ||
| 61% | 11/18 | ||
| 18.5Current | 56% | 10/18 | |
| 41% | 7/17 | ||
| 39% | 7/18 | ||
| 39% | 7/18 |
Situational splits
Over 18.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home63%5/8Low
Away50%5/10Low
Days since last game
3+ days53%9/17Medium
Next matchup — @ CHI
Sep 29, 2026
9thof 32 in FS allowed to quarterbacks
CHI allows 19.4 FS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jalen Hurts has gone over 18.5 FS 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 56% across the full season. CHI has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 9th-most FS of 32 teams (19.4 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 6.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 56%.
More Jalen Hurts research
Jalen Hurts — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Hurts Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Hurts Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Hurts Rushing Yards→
Rushing Yards hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.