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Philadelphia EaglesJalen Hurts Rushing Yards
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Jalen Hurts has gone over 24.5 RUSH YDS in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oklahoma
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 25.4 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJalen Hurts isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Both picks led to points for the Titans, including a fourth-quarter field goal that put the home side up 20-17 with less than two minutes left. Hurts atoned for his mistakes, however, leading a nine-play, 65-yard drive that was capped by a three-yard TD strike to Darius Cooper that won the game. Hurts has already thrown five touchdowns in two games after tossing a career-high 25 in 16 regular-season contests in 2025, and he'll look to keep that momentum going in a Week 3 road trip to Chicago.
Verdict
vs 24.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 49% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)48neutral
Projection vs line49neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
25.0 RUSH YDS(×1.03 context)
L5 24.2 · L10 25.1 · med 29.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 10.0 · ceil 40.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2018 games
50%over
9 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 29%–71%Season18 games
50%over
9 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 29%–71%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | 10/18 | ||
| 50% | 9/18 | ||
| 50% | 9/18 | ||
| 24.5Current | 50% | 9/18 | |
| 50% | 9/18 | ||
| 50% | 9/18 | ||
| 44% | 8/18 |
Situational splits
Over 24.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home63%5/8Low
Away40%4/10Low
Days since last game
3+ days47%8/17Medium
Next matchup — @ CHI
Sep 29, 2026
27thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to quarterbacks
CHI allows 8.0 RUSH YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jalen Hurts has gone over 24.5 RUSH YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 50% across the full season. CHI has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 27th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (8.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 19.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 29.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.6%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 49.4%
Best Over
Hard Rock Bet-115
-5.4% EV
Best Under
Caesars+102
-0.3% EV
Model vs market (over)+0.8%
Our model puts the over at 51.4% vs the market's no-vig 50.6%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (29.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Jalen Hurts research
Jalen Hurts — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Hurts Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Hurts Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Hurts Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.