Philadelphia Eagles

Jalen Hurts Rushing Yards

Stats updated: Jan 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jalen Hurts has gone over 24.5 RUSH YDS in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Oklahoma
Experience: 8 seasons

Line

PrizePicksRushing Yards · season avg 24.8 RUSH YDS · our line

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OutJalen Hurts isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

A.J. Brown, who led the Eagles with 121 targets in 2025, was traded to the Patriots earlier this month, but prior to that previously speculated move, Philadelphia proactively added depth to a WR corps that is slated to led by returnee DeVonta Smith. The most notable moves in that regard were adding Makai Lemon in the first round of this year's draft, in addition to trading for Dontayvion Wicks and signing Hollywood Brown and Elijah Moore in free agency. During the 2025 regular season, Hurts recorded 3,224 passing yards and a 25:6 TD:INT to go with 421 rushing yards and eight TDs on the ground (on 105 attempts) in 16 contests, numbers that kept him relevant from a fantasy perspective. Looking ahead, Hurts' upside in 2026 is largely tied to how well he adapts to working in new offensive coordinator Sean Mannion's system, as well as how things shake out in terms of the team's collective approach to replacing Brown.

Verdict

vs 24.5 RUSH YDSRushing Yards

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 49% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral

Projection vs line49neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

22.9 RUSH YDS(×1.10 context)

L5 19.6 · L10 20.1 · med 24.5

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 8.0 · ceil 40.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2016 games

50%over

8 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%

Season16 games

50%over

8 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%

Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)

RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate RUSH YDS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	56%	9/16
	50%	8/16
	50%	8/16
24.5Current	50%	8/16
	50%	8/16
	50%	8/16
	44%	7/16

Last 16 games — RUSH YDS per game vs. line 24.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 24.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home57%4/7Low

Away44%4/9Low

Days since last game

3+ days47%7/15Low

Last matchup — vs SF

Jan 11, 2026

28thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to quarterbacks

SF allows 12.5 RUSH YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 19 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Jalen Hurts has gone over 24.5 RUSH YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. SF has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 28th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (12.5 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 19.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.