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Buffalo BillsJames Cook III
#4 · RB · 5' 11" · 190 lb · 19 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 17 of these 19 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 17, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Georgia
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 100.9 RUSH YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJames Cook III isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Cook repeatedly gashed a Lions defense that came in with a reputation for being stingy against the run, more than atoning for a lackluster Week 1 showing against the Texans just four days earlier. The star running back rounded out his fantasy night with the final score of the high-scoring clash for the Bills, recording a one-yard touchdown run with just under three minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. Cook's multiple explosive runs throughout the night served as a reminder of why he earned such lofty draft status this summer, and he'll remain a critical component of a juggernaut Bills offense in a Week 3 home matchup against the Chargers on Sunday, Sept. 27.
Verdict
vs 81.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 68% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)86supports it
Projection vs line68supports it
Consistency32argues against it
Projection
102.3 RUSH YDS(×1.04 context)
L5 85.8 · L10 99.3 · med 111.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 55.4 · ceil 123.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2019 games
63%over
12 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 41%–81%Season19 games
63%over
12 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 41%–81%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68% | 13/19 | ||
| 68% | 13/19 | ||
| 63% | 12/19 | ||
| 81.5Current | 63% | 12/19 | |
| 63% | 12/19 | ||
| 63% | 12/19 | ||
| 63% | 12/19 |
Situational splits
Over 81.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%4/8Low
Away73%8/11Low
Days since last game
3+ days61%11/18Medium
Next matchup — vs LAC
Sep 27, 2026
12thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
LAC allows 50.0 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, James Cook III has gone over 81.5 RUSH YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 63% across the full season. LAC has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 12th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (50.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 41.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 63%.