Buffalo Bills

James Cook III Targets

Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

James Cook III has gone over 2.5 TGT in 4 of his last 7 decided games (57%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Georgia
Experience: 6 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 2.4 TGT · our line

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OutJames Cook III isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Cook gave the Bills some breathing room with a five-yard touchdown run in the third quarter to extend Buffalo's lead to 23-10. He was evaluated for a head injury later in the game but received clearance to return and notched one more carry after that point. After being held to 57 rushing yards without a touchdown by the Texans in Week 1, Cook has rushed for at least 75 yards and a touchdown in six consecutive games. Extending that streak won't be easy in Week 9 against Minnesota's elite defense on MNF.

Verdict

vs 2.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 47% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)68supports it

Projection vs line47neutral

Consistency28argues against it

Matchup25argues against it

Projection

2.4 TGT(×0.99 context)

L5 2.0 · L10 2.4 · med 3.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 1.2 · ceil 3.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 107 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Last 207 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Season7 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	7/7
	71%	5/7
2.5Current	57%	4/7
	14%	1/7
	0%	0/7
	0%	0/7

Last 7 games — TGT per game vs. line 2.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 2.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%2/4Low

Away67%2/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%3/6Low

Next matchup — @ MIN

Nov 10, 2026

25thof 32 in TGT allowed to running backs

MIN allows 2.2 TGT per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 15 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 7 games, James Cook III has gone over 2.5 TGT 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. MIN has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 25th-most TGT of 32 teams (2.2 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.