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Detroit LionsJared Goff
#16 · QB · 6' 4" · 217 lb · 19 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 17 of these 19 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 17, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- California
- Experience
- 12 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 268.3 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJared Goff isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Goff's final line undoubtedly pleased fantasy managers, but in a real-world football sense, they were largely the byproduct of a high-scoring loss in which the Lions trailed throughout. He had a mostly unremarkable first half, throwing just one of his touchdown passes in that span when he connected with Jahmyr Gibbs from 11 yards out. Goff would go on to add two and 27-yard strikes to Amon-Ra St. Brown and a one-yard scoring toss to Sam LaPorta after halftime, pushing the veteran signal-caller to a sparkling 6:0 TD:INT over the first two games of the season. Goff will next take aim at the Jets secondary in a Week 3 home matchup on Sunday, Sept. 27.
Verdict
vs 257.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 84% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)60supports it
Projection vs line84supports it
Consistency65supports it
Projection
332.8 PASS YDS(×1.19 context)
L5 285.0 · L10 286.2 · med 294.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 204.8 · ceil 328.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2019 games
53%over
10 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 32%–73%Season19 games
53%over
10 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 32%–73%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63% | 12/19 | ||
| 58% | 11/19 | ||
| 53% | 10/19 | ||
| 257.5Current | 53% | 10/19 | |
| 47% | 9/19 | ||
| 47% | 9/19 | ||
| 47% | 9/19 |
Situational splits
Over 257.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home56%5/9Low
Away50%5/10Low
Days since last game
3+ days56%10/18Medium
Next matchup — vs NYJ
Sep 27, 2026
30thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
NYJ allows 142.5 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jared Goff has gone over 257.5 PASS YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 53% across the full season. NYJ has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 30th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (142.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 56.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 258.5 PASS YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.9%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.1%
Best Over
DraftKings-112
-5.5% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-112
-5.3% EV
Model vs market (over)+33.6%
Our model puts the over at 83.6% vs the market's no-vig 49.9%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (259 PASS YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.