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Dallas CowboysJavonte Williams
#33 · RB · 5' 10" · 222 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- North Carolina
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 66.0 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJavonte Williams isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
After failing to crack 20 rushes in any of the Cowboys' first six games of the season, Williams now has two such outings over the last two weeks. However, he averaged a season low in a single contest with 2.3 YPC on Sunday, and his TD streak also was snapped at five outings. Williams has a stranglehold on Dallas' backfield with 134 carries to date, while the rest of the team's RBs have combined for 37 through eight weeks. Williams will seek better results next Sunday versus the wayward Colts on the road.
Verdict
vs 50.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 75% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line75supports it
Consistency2argues against it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
86.3 RUSH YDS(×1.20 context)
L5 71.8 · L10 66.0 · med 50.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 41.0 · ceil 83.6
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 |
Situational splits
Over 50.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days57%4/7Low
Next matchup — @ IND
Nov 8, 2026
7thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
IND allows 54.3 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 15 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 8 games, Javonte Williams has gone over 50.5 RUSH YDS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. IND has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 7th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (54.3 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 38.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 71.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
Hard Rock Bet-115
-6.5% EV
Best Under
Caesars-110
-4.5% EV
Model vs market (over)+24.9%
Our model puts the over at 74.9% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (71.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.