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Dallas CowboysJavonte Williams Receiving Yards
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Javonte Williams has gone over 8.5 REC YDS in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- North Carolina
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 10.4 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJavonte Williams isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The Commanders' front more than held its own against the Cowboys' offensive line, leading Williams to scratch and claw for yardage while Dak Prescott carved up Washington's defense through the air. Williams still played a clear lead role despite the modest amount of rush attempts, and he was once again an important complementary option in the passing game. Williams has another tough assignment on tap in Week 3, as the Cowboys welcome in the Ravens next Sunday.
Verdict
vs 8.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 56% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line56neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
12.7 REC YDS(×0.97 context)
L5 12.0 · L10 9.5 · med 4.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 18.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2018 games
50%over
9 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 29%–71%Season18 games
50%over
9 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 29%–71%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | 10/18 | ||
| 56% | 10/18 | ||
| 56% | 10/18 | ||
| 8.5Current | 50% | 9/18 | |
| 44% | 8/18 | ||
| 39% | 7/18 | ||
| 39% | 7/18 |
Situational splits
Over 8.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%6/9Low
Away33%3/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days47%8/17Medium
Next matchup — vs BAL
Sep 27, 2026
20thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to running backs
BAL allows 12.0 REC YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Javonte Williams has gone over 8.5 REC YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. BAL has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 20th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (12.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 10.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 16.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
Caesars+100
+0.0% EV
Best Under
Hard Rock Bet-115
-6.5% EV
Model vs market (over)+6.5%
Our model puts the over at 56.5% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (16.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Javonte Williams research
Javonte Williams — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Williams Carries→
Carries hit rates and trends.
Williams Rushing TDs→
Rushing TDs hit rates and trends.
Williams Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Williams Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.