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Dallas CowboysJavonte Williams Receiving Yards
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Javonte Williams has gone over 12.5 REC YDS in 4 of his last 8 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- North Carolina
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 13.0 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJavonte Williams isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
After failing to crack 20 rushes in any of the Cowboys' first six games of the season, Williams now has two such outings over the last two weeks. However, he averaged a season low in a single contest with 2.3 YPC on Sunday, and his TD streak also was snapped at five outings. Williams has a stranglehold on Dallas' backfield with 134 carries to date, while the rest of the team's RBs have combined for 37 through eight weeks. Williams will seek better results next Sunday versus the wayward Colts on the road.
Verdict
vs 12.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 49% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line49neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
11.7 REC YDS(×1.22 context)
L5 9.6 · L10 13.0 · med 13.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 2.6 · ceil 20.6
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 12.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 |
Situational splits
Over 12.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days43%3/7Low
Next matchup — @ IND
Nov 8, 2026
2ndof 32 in REC YDS allowed to running backs
IND allows 22.4 REC YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 15 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 8 games, Javonte Williams has gone over 12.5 REC YDS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. IND has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 2nd-most REC YDS of 32 teams (22.4 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 10.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
5 books @ 8.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.3%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.7%
Best Over
DraftKings-109
-5.6% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-115
-5.1% EV
Model vs market (over)+1.4%
Our model puts the over at 50.6% vs the market's no-vig 49.3%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (8.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Javonte Williams research
Javonte Williams — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Williams Carries→
Carries hit rates and trends.
Williams Rushing TDs→
Rushing TDs hit rates and trends.
Williams Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Williams Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.