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Houston TexansJawhar Jordan
#26 · RB · 5' 10" · 185 lb · 3 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Louisville
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 63.3 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJawhar Jordan isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Jordan flashed genuine juice in his regular-season debut last season, rushing for 101 yards on 15 carries in a Week 15 matchup against the Cardinals. His 50-yard breakaway in that game was the Texans' longest run of the season. The 26-year-old is competing against undrafted rookies Noah Whittington and Josh Pitsenberger, as well as former Colt and Saint Evan Hull, for a roster spot. British Brooks' special-teams acumen also complicates the backfield math, but improvement in Jordan's speed, third-down work and hands make the 2024 sixth-round pick the early favorite for the No. 3 gig.
Verdict
vs 52.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 63% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)99supports it
Projection vs line63supports it
Consistency28argues against it
Projection
60.8 RUSH YDS
L5 63.3 · L10 63.3 · med 53.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 42.8 · ceil 81.8
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 53 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Last 103 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Last 203 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Season3 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 2/3 | ||
| 67% | 2/3 | ||
| 67% | 2/3 | ||
| 52.5Current | 67% | 2/3 | |
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 33% | 1/3 |
Situational splits
Over 52.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%2/2Low
Away0%0/1Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%1/2Low
Last matchup — @ LAC
Dec 27, 2025
27thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
LAC allows 43.5 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 34 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 3 games, Jawhar Jordan has gone over 52.5 RUSH YDS 2 of 3 decided times (67%) — versus 67% across the full season. LAC has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 27th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (43.5 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 27.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.