Houston Texans

Jawhar Jordan Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jawhar Jordan has gone over 11.5 FS in 2 of his last 3 decided games (67%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Louisville
Experience: 2 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 9.8 FS · our line

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OutJawhar Jordan isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Jordan flashed genuine juice in his regular-season debut last season, rushing for 101 yards on 15 carries in a Week 15 matchup against the Cardinals. His 50-yard breakaway in that game was the Texans' longest run of the season. The 26-year-old is competing against undrafted rookies Noah Whittington and Josh Pitsenberger, as well as former Colt and Saint Evan Hull, for a roster spot. British Brooks' special-teams acumen also complicates the backfield math, but improvement in Jordan's speed, third-down work and hands make the 2024 sixth-round pick the early favorite for the No. 3 gig.

Verdict

vs 11.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 37% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)99supports it

Projection vs line37argues against it

Consistency24argues against it

Projection

9.4 FS

L5 9.8 · L10 9.8 · med 12.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 7.0 · ceil 13.1

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 53 games

67%over

2 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%

Last 103 games

67%over

2 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%

Last 203 games

67%over

2 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%

Season3 games

67%over

2 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	67%	2/3
	67%	2/3
	67%	2/3
11.5Current	67%	2/3
	33%	1/3
	33%	1/3
	0%	0/3

Last 3 games — FS per game vs. line 11.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 11.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home100%2/2Low

Away0%0/1Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%1/2Low

Last matchup — @ LAC

Dec 27, 2025

31stof 32 in FS allowed to running backs

LAC allows 9.2 FS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 34 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 3 games, Jawhar Jordan has gone over 11.5 FS 2 of 3 decided times (67%) — versus 67% across the full season. LAC has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 31st-most FS of 32 teams (9.2 per game). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 4.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.