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Seattle SeahawksJaxon Smith-Njigba
#11 · WR · 6' 0" · 197 lb · 17 games
Stats updated: Feb 8, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Ohio State
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 110.1 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJaxon Smith-Njigba isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Smith-Njigba enters camp as Seattle's clear offensive centerpiece after an Offensive Player of the Year season and Super Bowl run, but his surroundings have shifted. With former OC Klint Kubiak gone and first-time play caller Brian Fleury taking over, the offense could look notably different despite the return of quarterback Sam Darnold. Smith-Njigba is coming off a season that proves his elite fantasy ceiling beyond a doubt, but it remains to be seen whether Fleury can effectively move him around the formation and create mismatches the way Kubiak did.
Verdict
vs 105.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 50% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)66supports it
Projection vs line50neutral
Consistency49neutral
Projection
101.2 REC YDS(×1.06 context)
L5 86.4 · L10 100.2 · med 94.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 92.2 · ceil 131.4
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2017 games
47%over
8 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–69%Season17 games
47%over
8 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–69%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59% | 10/17 | ||
| 53% | 9/17 | ||
| 53% | 9/17 | ||
| 105.5Current | 47% | 8/17 | |
| 47% | 8/17 | ||
| 47% | 8/17 | ||
| 47% | 8/17 |
Situational splits
Over 105.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home63%5/8Low
Away33%3/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days44%7/16Medium
With a teammate out
How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Zach Charbonnet out · Left Knee - ACL Surgery-21.9 REC YDS when he sits
Without (3g)
92.0 REC YDS
33% over 105.5
With (14g)
113.9 REC YDS
50% over 105.5
Last matchup — @ NE
Feb 8, 2026
31stof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
NE allows 36.0 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 68 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has gone over 105.5 REC YDS 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 47% across the full season. NE has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 31st-most REC YDS of 32 teams (36.0 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 33.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.