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Seattle SeahawksJaxon Smith-Njigba
#11 · WR · 6' 0" · 197 lb · 17 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 15 of these 17 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Ohio State
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 113.0 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJaxon Smith-Njigba isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Smith-Njigba started off his day with a bang, connecting with Drew Lock for an 82-yard touchdown on Seattle's opening possession of the game. The wide receiver later added a seven-yard score in the third quarter before notching a third touchdown in the final period, scoring from 12 yards out to cap off his day. Smith-Njigba has now caught 17 of 22 targets for 277 yards and four touchdowns over two contests to open the 2026 campaign, and he'll have a strong chance to continue his hot start Week 3 against Washington's feeble secondary.
Verdict
vs 112.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 56% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)58neutral
Projection vs line56neutral
Consistency48neutral
Projection
116.6 REC YDS(×1.03 context)
L5 108.2 · L10 108.1 · med 104.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 92.2 · ceil 148.8
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2017 games
53%over
9 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 31%–74%Season17 games
53%over
9 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 31%–74%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53% | 9/17 | ||
| 53% | 9/17 | ||
| 53% | 9/17 | ||
| 112.5Current | 53% | 9/17 | |
| 47% | 8/17 | ||
| 47% | 8/17 | ||
| 47% | 8/17 |
Situational splits
Over 112.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home63%5/8Low
Away44%4/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days56%9/16Medium
Next matchup — @ WSH
Sep 27, 2026
7thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
WSH allows 56.2 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has gone over 112.5 REC YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 53% across the full season. WSH has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 7th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (56.2 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 35.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
5 books @ 81.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.1%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 49.9%
Best Over
DraftKings-111
-4.8% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-113
-5.9% EV
Model vs market (over)+5.6%
Our model puts the over at 55.7% vs the market's no-vig 50.1%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (81.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.