Seattle Seahawks

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Feb 8, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has gone over 21.5 FS in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Ohio State
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 22.4 FS · our line

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OutJaxon Smith-Njigba isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Smith-Njigba enters camp as Seattle's clear offensive centerpiece after an Offensive Player of the Year season and Super Bowl run, but his surroundings have shifted. With former OC Klint Kubiak gone and first-time play caller Brian Fleury taking over, the offense could look notably different despite the return of quarterback Sam Darnold. Smith-Njigba is coming off a season that proves his elite fantasy ceiling beyond a doubt, but it remains to be seen whether Fleury can effectively move him around the formation and create mismatches the way Kubiak did.

Verdict

vs 21.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 49% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)61supports it

Projection vs line49neutral

Consistency48neutral

Projection

21.0 FS(×1.06 context)

L5 18.4 · L10 21.7 · med 20.5

Consistency

Variable

floor 18.3 · ceil 27.9

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Last 2017 games

47%over

8 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 26%–69%

Season17 games

47%over

8 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 26%–69%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	71%	12/17
	65%	11/17
	59%	10/17
21.5Current	47%	8/17
	41%	7/17
	41%	7/17
	35%	6/17

Last 17 games — FS per game vs. line 21.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 21.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%4/8Low

Away44%4/9Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%8/16Medium

With a teammate out

How this FS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Zach Charbonnet out · Left Knee - ACL Surgery-3.5 FS when he sits

Without (3g)

19.5 FS

33% over 21.5

With (14g)

23.0 FS

50% over 21.5

Last matchup — @ NE

Feb 8, 2026

24thof 32 in FS allowed to wide receivers

NE allows 8.6 FS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 68 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has gone over 21.5 FS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 47% across the full season. NE has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 24th-most FS of 32 teams (8.6 per game). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 7.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.