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Seattle SeahawksJaxon Smith-Njigba
#11 · WR · 6' 0" · 197 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Nov 2, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Ohio State
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 129.9 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJaxon Smith-Njigba isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Smith-Njigba was in his usual position of leading the Seahawks across the board in receptions, receiving yards and targets, and he crossed the 100-yard mark for the seventh time in eight games this season with a pair of catches on Seattle's final drive of the night. His target total also was his sixth double-digit tally of the campaign, and the absence of Rashid Shaheed (knee) helped reinforce JSN's downfield role even further. Smith-Njigba now will head into a Week 9 home matchup against the Cardinals on Sunday just 15 yards short of his third consecutive 1,000-yard campaign and only a touchdown shy of tying the career-high 10 he recorded over 17 regular-season games last season.
Verdict
vs 127.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 76% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line76supports it
Consistency78supports it
Matchup50neutral
Projection
139.2 REC YDS(×1.08 context)
L5 126.4 · L10 129.9 · med 128.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 118.8 · ceil 146.8
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 127.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 |
Situational splits
Over 127.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home25%1/4Low
Away100%3/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days67%4/6Low
Next matchup — vs ARI
Nov 8, 2026
16thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
ARI allows 45.1 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 25 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 7 games, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has gone over 127.5 REC YDS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. ARI has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 16th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (45.1 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 17.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 93.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.8%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.2%
Best Over
Caesars-113
-6.1% EV
Best Under
Caesars-115
-6.1% EV
Model vs market (over)+26.3%
Our model puts the over at 76.1% vs the market's no-vig 49.8%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (93.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.