Loading…
Washington CommandersJayden Daniels
#5 · QB · 6' 4" · 210 lb · 9 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 7 of these 9 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- LSU
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 169.1 PASS YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
DoubtfulDoubtfulConfirm Jayden Daniels's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Left Elbow Dislocated
Daniels stumbled while taking the snap on the final play of the first half, and his left arm bent awkwardly while he was trying to catch himself from falling on the field. It's the same arm in which he suffered a dislocated elbow last season, and he's been carted to the locker room to undergo further tests. Assuming Daniels doesn't return, Marcus Mariota will take over under center for the Commanders, with rookie seventh-rounder Athan Kaliakmanis (coach's decision) serving as the team's emergency third quarterback.
Verdict
vs 223.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsCool underFireFactor 36/100· model 92% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line92supports it
Consistency48neutral
Projection
122.9 PASS YDS(×0.83 context)
L5 129.4 · L10 169.1 · med 164.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 130.2 · ceil 219.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Doubtful — likely sidelined; confirm status first.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
0%over
0 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%Last 109 games
22%over
2 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–55%Last 209 games
22%over
2 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–55%Season9 games
22%over
2 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–55%Situational splits
Over 223.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away17%1/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days13%1/8Medium
Next matchup — vs SEA
Sep 27, 2026
32ndof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
SEA allows 136.5 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 9 games, Jayden Daniels has gone over 223.5 PASS YDS 2 of 9 decided times (22%) — versus 22% across the full season. SEA has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 32nd-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (136.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 52.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 223.5 PASS YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.1%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 49.9%
Best Over
DraftKings-113
-5.6% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-111
-5.2% EV
Model vs market (over)-41.9%
Our model puts the over at 8.2% vs the market's no-vig 50.1%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (223 PASS YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 22%.