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Washington CommandersJayden Daniels
#5 · QB · 6' 4" · 210 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Dec 7, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- LSU
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 180.3 PASS YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJayden Daniels isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Head coach Dan Quinn said he's pleased with Daniels' progress and has been impressed by his quarterback's processing speed. Blough is an internal promotion after two years as an assistant QBs coach under former OC Kliff Kingsbury, but it sounds like Blough has a different vision for Washington's offense, including less no-huddle and more snaps under center. Daniels reportedly has done well with the footwork while operating from under center, instead pointing to changes in terminology and offensive philosophy as the difficult aspects to master in a new offense. Blough has also mentioned, multiple times, wanting to get the ball to WR Terry McLaurin more often than the Commanders did in past years. That almost goes without saying, given the lack of other proven weapons amidst open competition for roles at WR and RB. The Commanders did at least sign TE Chig Okonkwo away from Tennessee to add some speed, and they've been connected with some of the veteran wideouts still available in free agency.
Verdict
vs 223.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 88% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line88supports it
Consistency53neutral
Projection
146.2 PASS YDS(×0.90 context)
L5 165.8 · L10 180.3 · med 200.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 153.6 · ceil 227.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 107 games
29%over
2 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 8%–64%Last 207 games
29%over
2 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 8%–64%Season7 games
29%over
2 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 8%–64%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29% | 2/7 | ||
| 29% | 2/7 | ||
| 29% | 2/7 | ||
| 223.5Current | 29% | 2/7 | |
| 29% | 2/7 | ||
| 29% | 2/7 | ||
| 29% | 2/7 |
Situational splits
Over 223.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away25%1/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days17%1/6Low
With a teammate out
How this PASS YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Rachaad White out-0.7 PASS YDS when he sits
Without (4g)
180.0 PASS YDS
0% over 223.5
With (3g)
180.7 PASS YDS
67% over 223.5
Last matchup — @ MIN
Dec 7, 2025
31stof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
MIN allows 175.5 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 17 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 7 games, Jayden Daniels has gone over 223.5 PASS YDS 2 of 7 decided times (29%) — versus 29% across the full season. MIN has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 31st-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (175.5 per game). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 51.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 29%.