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Washington CommandersJayden Daniels Rushing Yards
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Jayden Daniels has gone over 37.5 RUSH YDS in 5 of his last 9 decided games (56%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- LSU
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 42.0 RUSH YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutJayden Daniels isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Elbow Dislocated
- Est. return:
- Oct 4, 2026
Per Zach Selby of the Commanders' official site, Daniels is set to meet with another arm specialist Wednesday, and the team isn't expected to provide a formal timeline until the quarterback concludes the information-gathering process for his dislocated left elbow. Marcus Mariota will direct the Washington offense in Week 3, and he could be in line for additional starts beyond that if Daniels needs more extended time to recover from his injury. After dislocating the same elbow last November, Daniels missed four weeks, then was shut down for the season after aggravating the injury in his first game back in action.
Verdict
vs 37.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 44% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it
Projection vs line44neutral
Consistency27argues against it
Projection
36.0 RUSH YDS(×0.83 context)
L5 40.4 · L10 42.0 · med 39.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 25.4 · ceil 58.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 109 games
56%over
5 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%Last 209 games
56%over
5 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%Season9 games
56%over
5 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%Situational splits
Over 37.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%3/3Low
Away33%2/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%4/8Low
Next matchup — vs SEA
Sep 27, 2026
7thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to quarterbacks
SEA allows 27.0 RUSH YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 9 games, Jayden Daniels has gone over 37.5 RUSH YDS 5 of 9 decided times (56%) — versus 56% across the full season. SEA has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 7th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (27.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 18.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 36.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.6%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 49.4%
Best Over
FanDuel-113
-4.6% EV
Best Under
Hard Rock Bet-110
-5.7% EV
Model vs market (over)-6.5%
Our model puts the over at 44.1% vs the market's no-vig 50.6%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (36.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 56%.
More Jayden Daniels research
Jayden Daniels — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Daniels Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Daniels Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Daniels Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.