Green Bay Packers

Jayden Reed Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Jan 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jayden Reed has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 2 of his last 6 decided games (33%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Michigan State
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.3 REC TD · our line

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OutJayden Reed isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Reed played through a fractured foot at the beginning of last season and then missed 10 games after breaking his collarbone in Week 2. He returned for the stretch run and scored a touchdown on a season-high seven targets during the playoff loss at Chicago. With Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks out of the picture, each of Reed, Christian Watson and Matthew Golden has a solid case for career-high volume this year. There is still some doubt about Reed's playing time in two-wide packages, as he's largely been confined to 11 personnel through the first three years of his NFL career.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 69% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line69supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.4 REC TD(×0.99 context)

L5 0.2 · L10 0.3 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 106 games

33%over

2 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 10%–70%

Last 206 games

33%over

2 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 10%–70%

Season6 games

33%over

2 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 10%–70%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	33%	2/6
	0%	0/6
	0%	0/6
	0%	0/6

Last 6 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%1/3Low

Away33%1/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days20%1/5Low

Last matchup — @ CHI

Jan 11, 2026

2ndof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

CHI allows 0.4 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 64 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 6 games, Jayden Reed has gone over 0.5 REC TD 2 of 6 decided times (33%) — versus 33% across the full season. CHI has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 2nd-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.4 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.