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Green Bay PackersJayden Reed Targets
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Jayden Reed has gone over 4.5 TGT in 4 of his last 7 decided games (57%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Michigan State
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Targets · season avg 5.1 TGT · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm Jayden Reed's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Back Not Specified
Reed's listing comes as little surprise after he was carted off the field on a backboard after injuring his back during the Packers' first possession of Sunday's 20-17 overtime win over the Jets. Though Reed was held overnight in New Jersey for further observation, he's slated to return to Green Bay in the coming days while the Packers evaluate a treatment plan for the wideout. Clarity on the severity of Reed's injury as well as a timeline for his return should become available in the next day or two, but the 26-year-old will be facing an uphill battle to suit up in Thursday's game against the Falcons.
Verdict
vs 4.5 TGTTargetsNo readFireFactor 19/100· model 66% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line66supports it
Consistency53neutral
Projection
5.7 TGT(×1.05 context)
L5 5.4 · L10 5.1 · med 5.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 4.0 · ceil 6.8
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)
TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 7/7 | ||
| 100% | 7/7 | ||
| 86% | 6/7 | ||
| 4.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 29% | 2/7 | ||
| 0% | 0/7 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away75%3/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%3/6Low
Next matchup — vs ATL
Sep 25, 2026
3rdof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers
ATL allows 7.0 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 7 games, Jayden Reed has gone over 4.5 TGT 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. ATL has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 3rd-most TGT of 32 teams (7.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.
More Jayden Reed research
Jayden Reed — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Reed Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Reed Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Reed Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.