Pittsburgh Steelers

Jaylen Warren Carries

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jaylen Warren has gone over 12.5 CAR in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Oklahoma State
Experience: 6 seasons

Line

PrizePicksCarries · season avg 12.8 CAR · our line

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OutJaylen Warren isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Warren led the team in rushing yards and came one receiving yard shy of Germie Bernard's team lead in a game that fellow Steelers running back Rico Dowdle (toe) exited in the second quarter. If Dowdle isn't ready to play in Week 3, Warren would be in line for a heavy workload against the Bengals. Warren has 150 scrimmage yards on 28 touches through two games, which is a similar level of per-game production to the 2025 regular season, but he has yet to score in 2026 after posting eight total touchdowns last season.

Verdict

vs 12.5 CARCarries

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 73% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it

Projection vs line73supports it

Consistency65supports it

Projection

10.4 CAR(×0.86 context)

L5 11.8 · L10 12.1 · med 12.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 10.6 · ceil 14.8

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

30%over

3 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%

Last 2019 games

47%over

9 over · 10 under

Medium confidence95% CI 27%–68%

Season19 games

47%over

9 over · 10 under

Medium confidence95% CI 27%–68%

Alternate lines — Carries (CAR)

CAR over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate CAR line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	95%	18/19
	79%	15/19
	63%	12/19
12.5Current	47%	9/19
	42%	8/19
	21%	4/19
	21%	4/19

Last 19 games — CAR per game vs. line 12.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 12.5 CAR by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home40%4/10Low

Away56%5/9Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%9/18Medium

Next matchup — vs CIN

Sep 27, 2026

31stof 32 in CAR allowed to running backs

CIN allows 6.8 CAR per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Jaylen Warren has gone over 12.5 CAR 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 47% across the full season. CIN has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 31st-most CAR of 32 teams (6.8 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game CAR have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 2.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.