Pittsburgh Steelers

Jaylen Warren Receptions

Stats updated: Jan 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jaylen Warren has gone over 2.5 REC in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Oklahoma State
Experience: 6 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 2.4 REC · our line

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OutJaylen Warren isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Warren worked ahead of Dowdle on Wednesday but was the second running back up Thursday. While Warren remains the incumbent in this backfield and holds a steady role in the receiving game, Dowdle's arrival and familiarity with new head coach Mike McCarthy make this a murky situation. Warren's upside will depend on whether he can separate enough to avoid a full committee, and whether he or Dowdle gets distinct priority on early downs and near the goal line.

Verdict

vs 2.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 65% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)94supports it

Projection vs line65supports it

Consistency2argues against it

Projection

2.1 REC(×0.97 context)

L5 2.2 · L10 2.0 · med 2.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 2.0 · ceil 3.8

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

30%over

3 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%

Last 2017 games

35%over

6 over · 11 under

Medium confidence95% CI 17%–59%

Season17 games

35%over

6 over · 11 under

Medium confidence95% CI 17%–59%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	88%	15/17
	82%	14/17
2.5Current	35%	6/17
	24%	4/17
	12%	2/17
	0%	0/17

Last 17 games — REC per game vs. line 2.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 2.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%3/9Low

Away38%3/8Low

Days since last game

3+ days38%6/16Medium

With a teammate out

How this REC line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Rico Dowdle out+0.2 REC when he sits

Without (8g)

2.5 REC

50% over 2.5

With (9g)

2.3 REC

22% over 2.5

Last matchup — vs HOU

Jan 13, 2026

9thof 32 in REC allowed to running backs

HOU allows 2.2 REC per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 31 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Jaylen Warren has gone over 2.5 REC 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 35% across the full season. HOU has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 9th-most REC of 32 teams (2.2 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 35%.