Miami Dolphins

Jaylen Wright Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Oct 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jaylen Wright has gone over 3.5 FS in 5 of his last 9 decided games (56%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Tennessee
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 5.2 FS · our line

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OutJaylen Wright isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Wright exited Sunday's 28-25 win over the Jets late in the fourth quarter on account of the quad issue, but his availability for this weekend's game against the Patriots doesn't look to be in any peril. Since returning to action Week 4 against the Vikings following a one-game absence, Wright has been a clear second fiddle to Ollie Gordon out of the Miami backfield. In his last three appearances, Wright hasn't recorded any receptions and has logged no more than six carries in any contest.

Verdict

vs 3.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 49% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it

Projection vs line49neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup50neutral

Projection

3.1 FS(×0.83 context)

L5 2.4 · L10 5.2 · med 3.8

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 1.0 · ceil 8.3

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 109 games

56%over

5 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%

Last 209 games

56%over

5 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%

Season9 games

56%over

5 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	9/9
	67%	6/9
	56%	5/9
3.5Current	56%	5/9
	33%	3/9
	33%	3/9
	22%	2/9

Last 9 games — FS per game vs. line 3.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 3.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%2/4Low

Away60%3/5Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%4/8Low

Next matchup — vs NE

Nov 1, 2026

16thof 32 in FS allowed to running backs

NE allows 10.6 FS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 12 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 9 games, Jaylen Wright has gone over 3.5 FS 5 of 9 decided times (56%) — versus 56% across the full season. NE has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 16th-most FS of 32 teams (10.6 per game). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 5.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 56%.