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Miami DolphinsJaylen Wright
#5 · RB · 5' 10" · 208 lb · 6 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 6 of these 6 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Tennessee
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 44.3 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm Jaylen Wright's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Neck Stinger
Wright suffered a stinger during Sunday's 35-13 loss to the 49ers, and he finished his day having turned two carries into 11 yards while also adding 79 kickoff-return yards. The running back's status at the team's first practice of the week Wednesday will shed some more light on his chances to play Week 3 versus the Chiefs.
Verdict
vs 31.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 4/100· model 58% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line58neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
41.0 RUSH YDS(×0.94 context)
L5 47.6 · L10 44.3 · med 31.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 23.0 · ceil 56.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 106 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Last 206 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Season6 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 31.5Current | 50% | 3/6 | |
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 |
Situational splits
Over 31.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away33%1/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days60%3/5Low
Next matchup — vs KC
Sep 27, 2026
14thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
KC allows 48.7 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 6 games, Jaylen Wright has gone over 31.5 RUSH YDS 3 of 6 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. KC has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 14th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (48.7 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 30.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.